Archive for the ‘New Company Challenges’ Category

Small Cap IPO Limitations and Grocery Delivery

Sunday, January 6th, 2013

Small Cap IPO Market Broken:

innovationingrocery.jpg

It seems to me that this article in Business Insider’s IGNITION covers three elements important to those involved in FMCG brands and banners.

 

  • The rationale he puts behind the title of the article is interesting in and of itself.  It is hard for businesses limited in scope, but otherwise promising to attract capital today.  Part of that hurdle is that it is hard for suppliers of high risk capital to exit their investment.  If Google, IBM, Microsoft or eBay are not interested in buying the startup, and there is no appetite for banks to support a limited size IPO, how will the Venture Group exit?  Further upstream, the implications for startups are not good.  And let’s not forget, startups are the real engine for job growth.
  • The fact there is a flurry of activity in food delivery services is also interesting.  This activity predicts further incursions of companies munching on the current FMCG value chain.  Profits have been robust for manufacturers, but very uneven for distributors and the incursions mentioned in the article are going to impact the distributor side more.  I find it curious that we are witnessing a resurgence in the grocer online and delivery space…the first real moves since the early part of the last decade.
  • Innovative ideas about the business appear to be lacking, according to Mr. Patricof.  Either all of the services look alike or they are not able to communicate their unique value proposition to the VC community (which probably means they do not have one.)  Not really surprising.  Many of the efforts over the last decade to digitize the Every Household, Every week grocer chose are very fragmented, requiring the consumer to organize and integrate the various options (see: competing grocery multichannel ).  Entrepreneurs are once again tempted to solve a problem addressing a huge market….but they have not quite gotten it right….yet.

 

The Digital March to Grocery Dominance – Model 1, Collaboration Google and the Current Players:

Wednesday, October 10th, 2012

google.jpg

These blogs are fictional representations of business models that might be used to penetrate the traditional, physical store, supermarket business.  The purpose is to give the reader food for thought and a forum for discussion. One version of how dominant digital consumer players become entrenched in grocery is a collaborative process with a specific selection of traditional brick and mortar grocers.  

In this case Google simply buys its way into the EHEW (every household, every week grocery) market via MyWebGrocer (B2B2C supermarket specialists).  This blogpiece is shortened for publication.  For the complete, free, case email mike.spindler@shelfsnap.com.  For additional hands-on discussion facilitation you can schedule time with  Bill Bishop’s BrickMeetsClick  BlackBelt team in person or online at bill.bishop@brickmeetsclick.com.   

What is it? Google leverages its advertising and search expertise to capitalize and expand on the technology connection that MyWebGrocer has with consumers shopping in over 10,000 domestic supermarkets, and a growing body of stores overseas.   

  1. The combination creates a Google Marketplace offering, with each consumer’s version of that marketplace anchored by a very local Supermarket.       Google leverages its knowledge of consumer touch points, isolating and identifying consumers living around the stores with which MyWebGrocer has relationships.  These consumers represent just over 1/3rd of the Every Household, Every Week market in the U.S. 
  2. Google builds out a Marketplace network of national retail players (Bestbuy, JCP, Sears, Macy) to fill the role Amazon fills by itself.  With these Google creates a long tail of competitive product pricing and promotion with delivery either to the consumer household or to the partnering supermarket. 
  3.  Google builds out a Marketplace network of services and retailers localized around the supermarkets to supplement partner supermarket offerings with either products not handled, or services.  It finally conquers the local search and advertising business.
  4.  Google brings its wallet more effectively to the partner network.
  5. Google brings its Big Data and algorithmic capabilities to bear on the creating a virtuous cycle of growth from this consumer base including: (more in the case study)
  6. Google brings the manufacturer community to the table with a package of  personalized services and advertising opportunities much more valuable than anything thought about or available today.  (More in case study.)
  7. Google focuses first on growing the penetration of needs for current customers, and then with gathering their neighbors, targeting over 70% of the total population through current network Supermarkets. 

What it would look like to the consumer:

  • The 70% of the population who live within a reasonable distance of any of the 10,000 MyWebGrocer customer supermarkets will immediately see a strong uptick in focused communications, from that retail store.  The offers come to you even if the store does not know your email address, Facebook page or smartphone.  The chances are good that Google would know it.  If none of the parties had access to an active communication pipe to you, there would be a focused effort to secure that communication pipe, regardless of cost.  Once the email address is  obtained the shopper sees: (Much more here, for the complete free, case email mike.spindler@shelfsnap.com
  • As you move up the loyalty pipeline: (More here too, if you wish a facilitated review and guide to help formulate a response email bill.bishop@brickmeetsclick.com ) 

What it would look like for the players:  For the Target Supermarkets:  

  •  Pros: (more in the case study)  
  • Cons: 

For the Marketplace Participants:   

For Manufacturers: 

  •  Pros
  • Cons 

For Google:

Pros:

  • Google gets to be a serious long term player in a market combining retailer-advertiser and consumer, which will otherwise be dominated by Amazon, Walmart, Tesco, eBay, Facebook, Rakuten, NewsAmerica, BH Media, Yahoo or a small number of other companies. 
  •  Google through its MyWebGrocer purchase gains access to powerful retail collaborators and manufacturers for over a third of the U.S. supermarket locations with access to a much larger percentage of the customer markets, along with a growing overseas presence.  
  •  Google leverages the fact that most grocery shopping is still done in store today, and most of the groceries are still bought in supermarkets.   
  •  Moreover as consumers move toward online grocery shopping and store pickup continues to grow in popularity Google, via this purchase has the best built in migration path.  
  •  Google obtains a large, ready gateway and glide-path into the Every Household,  Every Week market.  
    • (More in case study)
  •  They develop a networked answer to Amazon.  That network consists of:
    • The close, loyal, frequent and ever-growing  relationships Google develops with a large base of EH,EW consumers through the collaborative supermarket client list, 
    •  A growing network of non-grocery retailers with e-commerce capabilities (clothing, books, electronics, HBC, housewares, office supplies) who can supply products either via UPS or for store pickup at the consumer’s regular networked grocery store (providing reference sales revenues to Google.)
    •  A network of local service and retail outlets to fill in the customer network needs (cleaning, banking etc.) offering both reference sales and advertising revenues.
  • Finally they develop an advertiser package of services and offerings that are much more valuable to the advertiser, the retailer and the consumer than anything that can be thought of today.  

Cons:

  • This vision requires money
  •  This vision requires collaboration with many different retail players
  •  This vision requires a big data play on all sides of the demand and supply chain
  •  This vision requires playing favorites and some change to base business models 

What does this look like for competitive merchants: (more here as well, in the case) 

Why MyWebGrocer?

MyWebGrocer has the largest e-commerce/e-marketing footprint with traditional bricks and mortar grocers in the world, by far.  It recognized early on that the Every Household, Every Week grocery market is different than other online consumer experiences.  It:

  • Uniquely built its applications based on the EHEW (grocery) model, 
  •  adapts constantly to both new capabilities and to the deepening consumer experience base and
  • works diligently to stay miles ahead of other approaches 

Why Google?

Pretty much any of the etailers or emarketers could play Google’s role in this model including Amazon, eBay, Facebook, Rakuten, NewsAmerica, BH Media, perhaps Catalina and now Yahoo. 

Told Ya! Tesco takes Fresh and Easy ONLINE.

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

We have been saying for quite a while that Tesco should move their fledgling small format efforts in the U.S. into online.   We once posited that the small format effort was built as a basis for their entry into the U.S. via online.  Not sure we were right about that, but it appears we were on the money that they would eventually get there!capture.JPG

The Pace of Change Within and Across New and Old Worlds:

Monday, October 24th, 2011

The pace of change in the digital to consumer world is quickening, particularly with regard to the most coveted FMCG market place.

In the last few weeks frenetic  new world activity has included:

1.      Facebook and eBay ( I did not see that combination coming) joined up with an open network deeper integration with components of x.commerce and Open Graph.  That combination brings the power of Paypal, Milo, Magento, GSI, Zang, Where and Red Laser into a powerful platform on Facebook.  The ingredients provides a delicious base for both clever minds at either eBay and Facebook, or any third party application developers.  This one bears close watching.

2.      eBay announced an increased expectation for mobile sales this year for $5 billion, up from $4 billion forecasted just a few months back.

3.      Facebook and Walmart (a cross-over old world retailer, trying its best to become new world) announce a powerful local marketing powerhouse, again fueled by Facebook’s enormous client base.  Perhaps most important to Walmart is the depth of data they will be able to cull from the efforts.  Having customer or prospect data, and mastering how to  correctly understand using it…is one of the 5 key elements to retail dominance by 2015.

4.      Amazon announced the expansion of their catalogue of specialty stores.  They also got physical with at-store pickup in several test location 7-Elevens.  Finally, and perhaps most importantly they moved aggressively into the tablet market with Kindle Fire.  I suspect they see this device as a controllable consumer purchase and purchase-consumption device.  This additional manner of “connection with the consumer” supports another of the 5 key elements to retail dominance in 2015.

5.      Google engages with the announcement that they will secure $2.5 billion in mobile ad revenue up from $1 billion last year.  They announce a new “circular” style for search results.  They go head to head with …just about everyone with an online music store.  And finally they move aggressively to push NFC checkout pads into more retailers so they can gain the high ground with Google Wallet.  

In the old world the pace quickens as well as more traditional bricks and mortar players strap on mobile and online

applications, and even pursue online grocery shopping.

1.      Price Chopper and Marsh announced new online grocery initiatives.  

2.      Interestingly Price Chopper and ShopRite are going head to head in both store based and online grocery shopping in Albany.  Shoprite is using both traditional advertising and more stealthy search based tools to penetrate this new market.  And ShopRite is able to feature it’s online store.  Price Chopper is suing because ShopRite has purchased the online search rights to Price Chopper and Price Chopper Flyer.  This IS the new world colliding with the competitive rules of the old.

3.      Price Chopper is also adding integrated multi-channel capabilities in mobile and online.

4.      Shop N Save (SUPERVALU), has added a mobile application that will help customers find products in stores.  Wegmans has had this for a while.

5.      Safeway just touted their ability to deliver stealth pricing to individual consumers through their Just for U program.  They did this as part of their quarterly reporting to analysts.

6.      I have talked to five grocery type retailers in the last month.   All have big plans for the growth of their online commerce business.  Multi-billion dollar plans.  Within the next few years.  

It strikes me that the old world and the new are approaching this from opposite directions. 

In the case of the old it is “buy something from me.”

The new world seems to be saying “connect with me and let me help you buy something.”

Very different approaches.  In both cases however, they seem to be closing in on the same objective.  They want to be become relevant to the consumer.   Relevant retention is another of the 5 key elements to retail dominance by 2015.

A few will eventually succeed.

Making a List, Checking It Twice!

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

mywebgrocer.jpg

Lists have always been an essential tool of the grocery shopper. Lists used to be simple oft-times taking the form of roughly penciled “categories” such as milk on any piece of paper or cardboard handy.  They served as a reminder to a shopper who kept the details about brand, item and size in their heads.   

I believe the grocery list will become the most powerful customer loyalty and customer centric marketing tool ever devised.  My plan for this blog is to:

·         Review the last two major “upheavals” in lists

·         Review the major innovations and talk about why they aren’t so new, how some have regressed and how there has really been very little innovation for almost a decade.

·         Talk just a bit about what needs to happen to make list the most powerful customer loyalty tool and customer centric marketing tool ever devised.

·         Talk a bit about the companies I see that might be able to play in the development, implementation and potential domination.   

Last Two Evolutionary Trends:

In the last 10 years the “list” has become both more and less useful..in fits and starts.   

Lists took a radical move toward more utility with the advent of serious online grocery shopping in 2001.  At that point they moved from category and subcategory…to items, with UPCs!   Full grocery store assortments became available and loyalty programs allowed retailers, usually supported by online service providers such as MyWebGrocer, to give consumers a choice among real products they had shopped for before.     

Most recently beginning about 2009, a number of other list services, not necessarily connected with any particular grocer are emerging.  Some of these are focused on savings (allyou.com has a localized circular tracker that compares all of the circulars in your immediate neighborhood).  Others are more traditional lists with bells and whistles that either give you optional drive-downs to brand based on pre-loaded products (which presumably either advertisers or other shoppers have specified) or allows you to scan items at the upc level or capture a picture for identification….if any data on that product exists in the supplier’s database.  

Major Innovations in Lists

Six innovations on the path between general category and item specific lists:

1.   The use of loyalty data to drive lists for online grocery shopping or use in the store.  Loyalty data from in-store shopping made for an effective “seeding” into the list.   In cases where loyalty data was not available, shoppers could build lists and save/name them for a variety of purposes (holiday list, vacation list).  The best applications organize lists by category and subcategory.  Current preferred store assortment, prices, specials and retailer coupons were all incorporated into the list.  If the customer wanted their list applied to a store that was not their preferred store (picking the one on the way home from work rather than their primary store) than the list modifies itself to reflect the assortment, prices, specials and promotions from that store.  All of this of course is within a particular chain or banner.

2.   The interoperability of other applications into the list.  A shopper could add specific items from recipe engines, from the electronic version of the circular from the coupon pages and so forth directly into their list.

3.   The use of loyalty data and product scoring mechanisms to focus the hundreds of circular items each week into a dozen or so key products that should be of prime interest to the shopper.  Not “you bought coke so here is a deal for pepsi” or even “you bought catsup so you need hot-dog buns” but products that the shopper had actually bought in the past. 

4.   Moved the list to the mobile consumer.  First through email.  The combination of lists (most often purchased items), shopper specific specials in a neat little package that they could either use as their total trip or use as a starter and delivery/pickup slot holder allowing them to finish the order off later from their laptop. 

5.   Adding aisle locations (as best could be done) This made the list, already heavily used in the store, more useable.

6.   The addition of non-retailer, errand based items (cleaners, wine store, drug store).  This was primitive, much like many of the early generic lists, but was an early form of trying to serve greater shopper needs with the host grocer as the “portal.” 

These innovations all occurred between 2001 and 2004, most of them with me at MyWebGrocer.  Since then there has been very little innovation.  The three notable, improvements since that time are:

a.    You can share the lists via mobile phone.  This is not much different than the old email days, but it is more portable.  Also some of the newer lists let you mark off what you already purchased which is handy for you….and if you need someone else to complete the shopping accurately, quite handy for them.   GroceryIQ is pretty cool here.

b.    You can scan barcodes to add products to your list.  In some ways this is less cool than it seems.  You would do this for three reasons:

a.    You wanted to see if there was a coupon available on the product.

b.    You were in a store that was not your normal store and you wished to remember the item.

c.    You want to add it to your list, but not for this trip

In these cases the chances of the application returning any useful information including the name or the correct image of the product are very, very remote according to studies done by ShelfSnap (shelfsnap.com) and by GS1-UK. 

c.    The application can be owned by a retailer or non retailer and may not be aligned with any particular retailer.  The shopper could have lists for each of his/her available retailers in one application.  They could have lists comparing prices on products they like or at least on categories in which they buy.  Some of these applications are not list builders at all except in the most rudimentary sense, but instead are price comparison applications.  Again, the application seems cool but …. The ability to combine relevance to any one consumer, and the availability of product images and information on that particular item or family of items is a very limited.  Usually the application is using circulars to satisfy the comparison, and product UPCs are usually not included in the ads.  An example, Grocery Circular Roundup by allyou.com is independent of any retailer.  A retailer owned version might look like Just For U from Safeway.  

   

What Needs to Happen to Harness Lists: Manufacturers, retailers and now, even applications and service providers have approached most application development from their own perspective.  “How do I keep the loyalty of my customer, or …how do I earn the loyalty of her customer?”   In reality loyalty can only be given, and only by the consumer.  

Back in January of this year I wrote:

Mobile adds yet another dimension to the multi-store, multi channel choice game that is developing for consumers.  Electronic coupons, online ordering for a variety of delivery options (online, via mail, store pickup), shopping comparison tools and the like.  All of these developments seem aimed directly at the heart of shopper’s loyalty to any specific retailers, particularly for oft-purchased items.  These applications fly in the face of what retailers had hoped to achieve.  They had hoped to convince shoppers to go to one place to buy everything.

In reality, at least for oft purchased, items consumers want the same thing. 

In our view: Customer needs drivers fall into a hierarchy that is definable with a finite number of common variables, but with infinite time and intensity variation.  Some of these are:

1.    Convenience -What I want, when I want/need it.  

2.    At a price I am willing to pay,

3.    Don’t make me work hard to get it. 

4.    Occasionally surprise and delight me with relevance. 

5.    Anticipate my wants and needs

6.    And . . .  don’t do anything that will make me go or look elsewhere.

 

We believe, structured appropriately these new technologies can be bundled into a shopper specific list.  This would help the shopper achieve a new level of satisfaction with the entity which is devoted to meeting these needs for each consumer.    We call the vision around this development Shopper 5.0.  Done well, this list will produce more loyalty than anything ever built .

 

The Companies who Might Drive Building and Operating THE LIST:

·         Amazon

·         eBay

·         Facebook

·         Google

·         Visa

·         Catalina

·         Walmart

·         Tesco

·         2- 3 regional players

I think more than one but fewer than a half dozen players.  It will take much more than the shoppers list.  The guys who don’t have stores will form a variety of relationships with a group of retailers-suppliers that will serve as a physical touch point.  But, the list will be the critical element.

 

And it won’t be your grandmother’s grocery list.grandmaslist.jpg

Amazing Change!!

Sunday, August 1st, 2010

Back in February I wrote a piece on the rapid adoption of electronic versions of books, available through the Amazon Kindle ( http://brandedpantry.com/2010/02/07/managing-change-that-has-already-happened/ ).  

For those of us embroiled in the physical store world, this kind of sea-change in consumer behavior must seem daunting.  If it doesn’t it should. Over the last thirty days Amazonhas sold 1.8 Kindle books for every 1.0 hard cover book.  Amazing.

If we think this sea-change in consumer behavior is confined to books, or computers, or gift cards, or ………we are mistaken.   There are all kinds of examples (shoes for instance) of categories being both researched and sold online that industry gurus have said would never shift online, that have indeed begun the migration.

Grocery is one of those categories that gurus claim will never have significant penetration from an online sales perspective.  Yet every year the sales of groceries online, continue to march forward both from a same-store y/y and a penetration of total sales (for traditional B&M grocers).

When I ran MyWebGrocer, we had (and still have) the best interface and series of applications in the grocery arena.  

Still, I believe there are steps to take that will significantly and radically impact the consumer reaction to this online channel.   It took the Kindle to move the book market online.  I know there is a “Kindle” waiting to move the grocery market.

Checkout RFID….or Not?

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

RFIDWorld.ca  is predicting the extinction of the bar code and the end of waits in grocery cues because of new less expensive RFID tags.

A component of their aggressive prediction is the announcement of the adoption of tag equipped apparel (jeans mostly) by the world’s largest retailer.   After all whatever those big fellas want….

Another piece of the puzzle is a new technology born through a joint effort of the Suncheon National University and Rice University that can be directly printed onto a paper or plastic tags made of ink laced with carbon nanotubes.

Regardless of the promise of this new RFID development, I am a good deal more excited about the Advantage “Tunnel” Checkout introduced last week in a Hebron,  Kentucky Kroger store.    The objective of this multi-scanner, scale and image verification technology is to eliminate both the shortcomings in current self checkout systems caused by the potential of theft, but also the bottleneck caused by most current self checkout systems.

The Advantage Checkout offers significant plusses in terms of adaptability and control.  For retailers and consumers to benefit only the retailer need commit.  In the case of RFID tags, one of the biggest hurdles has always been that if not all suppliers tag their products, the RFID checkout promise will remain just that.

Heck of a Couple of Months

Saturday, June 19th, 2010

Few new companies in any industry last through their first 12 months, 90% fail.

Companies trying to bring new ideas into the CG and retail space are probably more challenged, than new companies in many other industries.  CG and Retail are notoriously slow to adopt, just ask venture capital companies. 

Companies born in 2008-2009 face a fate more daunting given the deepest, perhaps ugliest recession since early in the last century.

So, with a mixture of exhaustion, continued angst and abiding faith that the contribution of what we offer is going to be recognized, ShelfSnap  finds itself in month 21 of its existence.

With the exception of a stellar PR month in May (Progressive Grocer , Frozen & Dairy BuyerLogistics Viewpoints and Supply Chain Digest) we have laid very low for the months of March, April, May and June…so far.

This period is what I like to call the “deep dollar conference” season.  It features the In-Store Summit, FMI, NACDS, as well as Nielsen’s, IRI’s and JDA’s user group meetings.   We attended none of these.   One of the reasons is that they are expensive and it is awfully hard for a small company to make a profitable payback from that investment.

The deeper reason is that we have been busy, very busy with some nice assignments from clients.   One of my partners pointed out that rather than continuing to market and continuing to focus on sales, we needed to devote our energies to delivering value to our clients.  Many new companies might be tempted to forget the need to return value for the faith these early clients put into new ideas.  Certainly, every CEO and investor is tempted sorely to chase the next customer.

Still, knowing that your company has delivered value, delivered important information that has never before been available and that the information delivered has generate changes that significantly improve results, is important to the company and to the people who devote every waking hour to trying to build that company.

I thank my stars for the folks who have contributed so much to the building of ShelfSnap.   We have a long way to go.  This is my fourth startup and new companies always strive for survival before they can build for success.  And we still face a tough recession; recovery seems to be more clearly evident in the District than in the aisles of the grocery store.    And we still are trying to bring new measures to an industry famous for its plodding adoption.

So tomorrow we continue the process of delivering value, and begin to step up our efforts to build that value into additional business.