The Branded Pantry

First quarter new CPG product introductions are off 51% vs. year ago, according to MINTEL  who track such things.  Hmmmmmm.  What is that a sign of …really?  Surely the new product pipeline has not shifted down to that degree so quickly.  There were some signs in early to mid 2008 of some change in new product pacing and focus…primarily related to downsizing and simplifying in order to hold prices which were under pressure from rising commodity and fuel costs.  But 51%?  Methinks not.   I suspect we have seen a slow down in introductions due to the cost of launch and the suspected mood of the consumer that “new” actually means cheaper or substitute or eliminate altogether.  Further to the retailer “new” means additional inventory, which even when offset by slotting fees or favorable terms still means costs or inventory assets…when asset avoidance seems to be the rule of the day.   Still we see new products being introduced with great vigor in the private label arena by players like Wal*Mart and Kroger….  Of course building a bigger target when consumer’s are aiming in that direction would seem to be a smart and prudent move.   What will the consumer think as they encounter new items and introductions from the retailer, while the CPG powerhouses sit on the sidelines?   It would seem that some reflection on the new product additiction that the CPG food-chain (Manufacturer, retailer and consumer) might be in order.  The backlog sitting in manufacturer development labs, test facilities and warehouses might benefit from some scrutiny and culling which might just yield a stronger 2009 “class” of new products.  This could coincide nicely with a bit of consumer enthusiasm as they start to shake off the bad news/crisis de jour blues and look for something enticing, not too expensive but out of the hum-drum to add a bit of fun to their diet.  It might also give retailers and manufacturers something to talk about other than price for a change.   However, I am not too sure that the new product proliferation pace and nature won’t also be a victim of these times.  “Clean stores”, increase PL representation, smaller formats, and the ever-popular SKU rationalization (which fly’s in the face of consumer taste fragmentation but….) will add pressure on all marketers to be “more serious” about their new offerings, at least for a time.  In some ways that is too bad.  We should have some dumb, fun choices.